[K5pbem] Environmental chance in the world of Kazei 5

[Mike Surbrook]

SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1501AP_Arctic_Warming.html

Monday, February 6, 2006 
Last updated 7:49 p.m. PT
Scientists warn of melting ice in Arctic

By DAN JOLING
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Scientists on Monday painted a gloomy picture of the 
effects of global warming on the Arctic, warning of melting ocean ice, 
rising oceans, thawed permafrost and forests susceptible to bugs and fire.

"A lot of the stories you read make it sound like there's uncertainty," 
said Jonathan Overpeck, a professor of geosciences at the University of 
Arizona. "There's not uncertainty."

The questions scientists continue to address, he said after his 
presentation at the Alaska Forum on the Environment, are how much of the 
warming is caused by humans and how drastic long-term effects will be.

Deborah Williams, a conference organizer and former director of the Alaska 
Conservation Foundation, said Alaska is Ground Zero for observing the 
effects of global warming because so many natural phenomena are tied to 
ice and the repercussions of it melting.

"We are the Paul Revere of global warming," she said.

Overpeck reviewed NASA studies showing how Arctic ice has shrunk in size 
and depth. Climate models 25 years ago predicted a shrinking ice pack.

"What we didn't predict is that it would be so dramatic," Overpeck said.

Scientists predict the summertime Arctic could be ice free before the end 
of the century, opening up northern sea routes but threatening the 
existence of polar bears, a marine mammal that depends on sea ice to live.

Other scientists ticked off the effects of warming on fish, forests and 
tundra.

James Overland, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration for more than 30 years, said the loss of sea 
ice has meant some marine life has thrived and some has been hurt.

"The marine ecosystem is shifting north dramatically," he said.

Pollock are thriving in warmer water. Pink salmon are being found in great 
numbers farther north, "an incredible indicator of warming," he said. Crab 
and other bottom-dwellers who depend on ice overhead for part of the year 
are suffering.

Glenn Juday, professor of forest ecology at the University of Alaska 
Fairbanks, said tree growth has decreased at Interior Alaska sites that 
were promising for commercial harvest. Studies of temperatures at 
Talkeetna and Fairbanks indicate daily lows are not as low as they used to 
be. The warming lowers the water available to white spruce, black spruce 
and birch, Juday said.

"The warmer it is, the less the trees grow," Juday said. Warming also 
makes them more susceptible to fire and insects.

Vladimir Romanovsky, an associate professor of geophysics at UAF, reviewed 
effects of warming on permafrost, or ground continuously frozen for two 
years. Areas of thick permafrost in the far north remain stable but have 
warmed over 20 years one-half to 2 degrees at a depth of 20 meters, 
Romanovsky said.

Matthew Sturm of Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory studied 
shrubs in Arctic tundra by comparing 50-year-old photographs taken along 
the Chandalar River for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska with photos 
taken recently.

"They all pretty much tell the same story," he said.

Shrubs have thrived in the greater warmth and in turn accelerate warming. 
Like open water in the ocean, shrubs darken what otherwise would be a 
mostly white, reflective snow-covered environment, Sturm said.

If warming trends continue, Overpeck said, the globe eventually will get a 
nasty message from the Arctic: a rise in sea levels. Higher oceans will 
flow into low-lying parts of the world such as New Orleans, making 
recovery in that hurricane-ravaged city moot.

"It's hard to imagine why we're wanting to rebuild if we're going to allow 
global warming," Overpeck said.